Thomas Cook

29th July 2019

As the UK enters recession territory, could national pride save the most vulnerable industries?

As Boris Johnson is now Prime Minister, it looks ever more likely that the UK will leave the European Union on October 31st. Some say that as the UK is already technically in a recession that this could do further damage to the UK economy. Others, including the new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson believe that if Britain remains positive and proud, that we can achieve anything in the face of adversity.

Plimsoll decided to put this idea to the test and look at the industries that are most at risk to an economic downturn. What we found was interesting to say the least…

Hotels across the UK are currently the most vulnerable industry, with 57% of the industry being in danger. Looking at the decline in the value of Sterling and a boost in national pride, an increase in ‘staycations’ and domestic holidays could see a boom in the industry that would bring it back from the precipice.

 

Mixed Farming is the second most at risk industry with 470 of the largest 1000 companies being rated by Plimsoll as ‘in danger’. A further increase in local spending, locally sourced produce and a leaning toward ‘British farmed goods’ could really benefit the industry. Certainly, if imported produce is going to be more expensive.

 

The Coach Hire & Tours industry could see a boom in the same way that hotels could if more British people opt for domestic holidays, rather than flying abroad where the Pounds will be worth less than usual. Ever increasing problems with rail travel could also push people towards this alternative means of travel.

 

Both the Restaurants and Pubs & Bars industries are fuelled by Britain’s favourite pastimes: evenings out and afterwork drinks. If more people sustained these ‘hobbies’ and frequented establishments more regularly, then these two industries should see an improvement in overall health.

 

Finally, if weekends away in Europe are less cost effective, Golf Clubs around the UK could see their membership and attendance increase. The clubs could attract a substantial amount of people looking to enjoy themselves locally with the traditional British sport as golf holidays become less practical.

 

So it appears that there may be some truth in what the new Prime Minister has said, although it is perhaps not simply down to the British spirit and willingness to succeed.

All of this does however rely on maintaining consumer spending at a similar level; simply diverting it closer to home than abroad. A recession could certainly inhibit that and cause people to have less cash in their pocket too. Let’s hope that’s not the case.

For further information on each industry, or to find out more about your own industry, visit our website at: www.plimsoll.co.uk